Dambudziko remagetsi rakakonzereswa nehondo muUkraine rinogona kuparadza hupfumi hweRussia neEuropean Union zvekuti rinogona kudzikira semasimba makuru pasi rose. Chinorehwa nekuchinja uku—kuchiri kunzwisiswa zvishoma—ndechekuti tinoita setiri kufamba nekukurumidza kuenda kunyika ine vanhu vane mafungiro akasiyana-siyana inotongwa nemasimba maviri makuru: China neUnited States.

Kana tikafunga nezvenguva yekutonga kweUS mushure meCold War seyakatora nguva kubva muna 1991 kusvika padambudziko remari ra2008, saka tinogona kuona nguva kubva muna 2008 kusvika Kukadzi wegore rino, apo Russia yakarwisa Ukraine, senguva ye quasi-multipolarity. China yaikura nekukurumidza, asi kukura kwehupfumi hweEU—uye kukura kwaizoita gore ra2008 risati rasvika—kwakapa kuti ive imwe yemasimba makuru pasi rose. Kudzoka kwehupfumi hweRussia kubvira muna 2003 uye simba rehondo rakaramba richienderera mberi zvakaita kuti ive pachena zvakare. Vatungamiriri kubva kuNew Delhi kuenda kuBerlin kuenda kuMoscow vakarumbidza multipolarity sechimiro chitsva chenyaya dzepasi rose.

Kusawirirana kuripo pakati peRussia neWest zvinoreva kuti nguva yekuwanda kwezvombo zvenyukireya yapera. Kunyangwe zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia zvisingazoperi, nyika iyi ichazviwana iri mubatsiri wechidiki munharaunda inotungamirwa neChina. Kukanganisa kudiki kwedambudziko remagetsi pahupfumi hweUS, panguva iyi, kuchava nyaradzo kuWashington mune zvematongerwo enyika: Kupera kweEurope pakupedzisira kuchaderedza simba reUnited States, iyo yagara ichiverenga kondinendi seshamwari.

Simba rakachipa ndiro dombo guru rehupfumi hwemazuva ano. Kunyangwe chikamu chesimba, munguva dzakajairika, chiri chikamu chidiki chete cheGDP yehupfumi hwenyika dzakawanda dzakabudirira, chine simba guru pakuwedzera mitengo yemagetsi uye mari yekushandisa muzvikamu zvese nekuda kwekushandiswa kwaro kwose kwose.

Mitengo yemagetsi negasi rechisikigo muEurope yava pedyo nekagumi paavhareji yayo yenhoroondo mumakore gumi anotungamira kusvika muna 2020. Kukwira kukuru kwegore rino kwakakonzerwa nehondo yeRussia muUkraine, kunyangwe yakawedzerwa nekupisa kwakanyanya uye kusanaya kwemvura zhizha rino. Kusvika muna 2021, Europe (kusanganisira United Kingdom) yaivimba neRussia inotenga zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika ne40 muzana yegasi rechisikigo pamwe nechikamu chikuru chemafuta nemarasha ayo. Mwedzi yakati wandei isati yapinda muUkraine, Russia yakatanga kushandisa misika yemagetsi uye kukwidza mitengo yegasi rechisikigo, sekureva kweInternational Energy Agency.

Simba remuEurope rinodhura mari inosvika 2 muzana yeGDP munguva dzakajairika, asi rakwira kusvika pa12 muzana nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo. Mitengo yakakura kudaro inoreva kuti maindasitiri mazhinji muEurope ari kuderedza mashandiro kana kudzima zvachose. Vagadziri vearuminiyamu, vagadziri vefetereza, vanyungudi vesimbi, nevagadziri vemagirazi ndivo vari panjodzi huru yemitengo yakakwira yegasi rechisikigo. Izvi zvinoreva kuti Europe inogona kutarisira kudzikira kukuru mumakore anotevera, kunyangwe fungidziro dzehupfumi dzichiratidza kuti kudzika kwaro kwakasiyana sei.

Kuti zvive pachena: Europe haizove nehurombo. Uye vanhu vayo havazoome nechando munguva ino yechando. Zviratidzo zvepakutanga zvinoratidza kuti kondinendi iri kuita basa rakanaka kuderedza kushandiswa kwegasi rechisikigo uye kuzadza matangi ayo ekuchengetera zvinhu munguva yechando. Germany neFrance dzine makambani makuru akagadzira nyika - nemutengo wakaderera - kuderedza kukanganiswa kwevatengi vemagetsi.

Pane kudaro, njodzi chaiyo iri kusangana nekondinendi ndeyekurasikirwa nemakwikwi ehupfumi nekuda kwekukura kwehupfumi kunononoka. Gasi rakachipa raivimba nekutenda kwenhema mukuvimbika kweRussia, uye izvozvo zvapera zvachose. Indasitiri ichachinja zvishoma nezvishoma, asi shanduko iyoyo ichatora nguva—uye inogona kutungamira mukukanganiswa kwehupfumi.

Matambudziko aya ehupfumi haana chekuita nekuchinja kwesimba remagetsi akachena kana mhinduro yeEU yekukurumidzira kukanganiswa kwemusika kwakakonzerwa nehondo muUkraine. Asi, anogona kuteverwa nesarudzo dzekare dzeEurope dzekuva nepfungwa yekupindwa muropa nemafuta eRussia, kunyanya gasi rechisikigo. Kunyangwe zvinhu zvinogadziriswazve zvakaita sezuva nemhepo zvichigona kutsiva mafuta emagetsi akawandisa, hazvigone kutsiva gasi rechisikigo nekushandiswa mumaindasitiri—kunyanya sezvo gasi rechisikigo rinopinzwa kunze kwenyika (LNG), iro rinowanzo taurwa kuti ndiro rinotsiva gasi repaipi, richidhura zvakanyanya. Kuedza kwevamwe vezvematongerwo enyika kupomera shanduko yesimba rakachena nekuda kwedambudziko rehupfumi riripo hakuna kunaka.

Mashoko asina kunaka eEurope anowedzera mafambiro aripo kare: Kubva muna 2008, chikamu cheEU muhupfumi hwepasi rose chakaderera. Kunyangwe United States yakadzoka kubva muKuderera Kwehupfumi Hwenyika nekukurumidza, hupfumi hweEurope hwakatambura zvikuru. Humwe hwacho hwakatora makore kuti hukure zvakare kusvika padanho rematambudziko asati aitika. Panguva iyi, hupfumi muAsia hwakanga huchiramba huchikura zvakanyanya, huchitungamirwa nehupfumi hukuru hweChina.

Pakati pa2009 na2020, mwero wekukura kwegore negore weGDP weEU waive neavhareji ye0.48 muzana chete, zvichienderana neWorld Bank. Mwero wekukura kweUS munguva imwe chete waive wakapetwa katatu, avhareji ye1.38 muzana pagore. Uye China yakakura nekukurumidza kwe7.36 muzana pagore munguva imwe chete. Mhedzisiro yacho ndeyekuti, nepo mugove weEU weGDP yepasi rose waive wakakura kupfuura weUnited States neChina muna 2009, ikozvino wave wakaderera pane mitatu iyi.

Munguva pfupi yapfuura muna 2005, EU yaive nechikamu chinosvika makumi maviri muzana cheGDP yepasi rose. Ichange iine hafu yemari iyoyo mukutanga kwema2030 kana hupfumi hweEU hukadzikira ne3 muzana muna 2023 na2024 uye yozotangazve kukura kwayo kwe0.5 muzana isati yasvika denda pagore ukuwo nyika yose ichikura ne3 muzana (avhareji yepasi rose isati yasvika denda). Kana mwaka wechando wa2023 uchitonhora uye kudzikira kuri kuuya kuchiratidza kuti kwakanyanya, mugove weEurope weGDP yepasi rose unogona kudzikira nekukurumidza.

Zvakatoipisisa ndezvekuti, Europe iri kumashure zvikuru nemamwe masimba panyaya yesimba remauto. Nyika dzeEurope dzave dzichishandisa mari shoma pamauto kwemakumi emakore uye hadzigoni kutsiva nyore nyore kushaikwa kwemari yekudyara. Chero mari inoshandiswa nemauto eEurope ikozvino—kuti idzorere nguva yakarasika—inouya nemutengo wemikana kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzehupfumi, zvichikonzera kunonoka kukura uye kumanikidza sarudzo dzinorwadza pamusoro pekudzikisa mari inoshandiswa munharaunda.

Mamiriro ezvinhu eRussia angangove akaoma kupfuura eEU. Ichokwadi kuti nyika ichiri kuwana mari yakawanda kubva mukutengesa kwayo mafuta negasi kunze kwenyika, kunyanya kuAsia. Zvisinei, nekufamba kwenguva, chikamu chemafuta negasi cheRussia chingangoderera—kunyangwe mushure mekunge hondo muUkraine yapera. Hupfumi hweRussia huri kutambura, uye zvirango zvekumadokero zvichabvisa chikamu chesimba chenyika iyi hunyanzvi hwehunyanzvi nemari yekudyara yainoda zvikuru.

Zvino sezvo Europe yarasikirwa nekutenda muRussia semupi wesimba, nzira chete inoshanda yeRussia ndeyekutengesa simba rayo kuvatengi vekuAsia. Zvinofadza kuti Asia ine hupfumi hwakawanda huri kukura. Zvinosuwisa kuti Russia, inenge network yayo yese yemapaipi nezvivakwa zvesimba parizvino zvakavakwa kuti zvitumirwe kunze kwenyika kuEurope uye hazvigone kutenderera kumabvazuva zviri nyore. Zvinotora makore nemabhiriyoni emadhora kuti Moscow igadzirise kutumira simba kunze kwenyika—uye zvingangoitika kuti inogona kungochinja-chinja zvichienderana nemari yeBeijing. Kuvimba neChina muchikamu chesimba kunogona kuenderera mberi kune zvematongerwo enyika, kubatana uko Russia inozviwana ichiita basa rechidiki. Kubvuma kwaMutungamiriri weRussia Vladimir Putin musi wa15 Gunyana kuti mumwe wake wekuChina, Xi Jinping, aive ne "mibvunzo nezvinonetsa" nezvehondo muUkraine zvinoratidza musiyano wesimba uripo pakati peBeijing neMoscow.

 

Kushomeka kwechikafu—uye mitengo yakakwira yezvinowanikwa—zvinogona kukonzera dambudziko guru munzvimbo idzi kupfuura simba. Hondo muUkraine yakakanganisa goho uye nzira dzekutakura dzegorosi rakawanda nezvimwe zviyo. Vatengesi vakuru vezvekudya vakaita seEgypt vane chikonzero chekutya nezvekusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunowanzo perekedzwa nemitengo yezvekudya iri kukwira.

Chinonyanya kukosha panyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika ndechekuti tiri kuenda kunyika ine China neUnited States dziri nyika mbiri huru pasi rose. Kubviswa kweEurope kubva munyaya dzepasi rose kuchakanganisa zvido zveUS. Europe—zvikurukuru—ine democracy, capitalist, uye yakazvipira kukodzero dzevanhu uye ine mitemo yepasi rose. EU yakatungamirawo pasi rose mumitemo ine chekuita nekuchengetedzeka, kuvanzika kwedata, uye nharaunda, ichimanikidza makambani epasi rose kuti avandudze maitiro avo pasi rese kuti aenderane nezvinodiwa zveEurope. Kubviswa kweRussia kungaita sekunge kwakanaka kune zvido zveUS, asi zvine njodzi yekuti Putin (kana mutsivi wake) achapindura kurasikirwa kwehunhu nemukurumbira wenyika nekutaura nenzira dzinoparadza—zvichida dzine njodzi.

Sezvo Europe iri kurwisana nekugadzirisa hupfumi hwayo, United States inofanira kuitsigira kana zvichibvira, kusanganisira nekutumira kunze kwenyika zvimwe zvezviwanikwa zvayo zvesimba, zvakaita seLNG. Izvi zvingava nyore kutaura pane kuzviita: VaAmerica havasati vanyatsonzwisisa mitengo yavo yesimba iri kukwira. Mitengo yegesi yechisikigo muUnited States yakawedzera katatu gore rino uye inogona kukwira sezvo makambani ekuUS achiedza kuwana misika ye LNG inoburitsa zvinhu zvakawanda muEurope neAsia. Kana mitengo yesimba ikawedzera zvakanyanya, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuUS vachamanikidzwa kudzora kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuitira kuchengetedza mutengo wesimba muNorth America.

Vachitarisana neEurope isina kusimba, vagadziri vemitemo veUS vachada kuunganidza vanhu vane pfungwa dzakafanana mumasangano epasi rose akaita seUnited Nations, World Trade Organization, neInternational Monetary Fund. Izvi zvinogona kureva kushamwaridzana kwakawanda kwemasimba ari pakati nepakati akaita seIndia, Brazil, neIndonesia. Kunyange zvakadaro, Europe inoita seisina kusimba kutsiva. United States yave ichibatsirwa kwemakumi emakore kubva muzvinhu zvehupfumi zvakafanana uye kunzwisisana kwayo nekondinendi. Kusvika padanho rekuti dambudziko rehupfumi muEurope rava kudzikira, United States ichatarisana nekuramba kwakasimba kuchinangwa chayo chehurongwa hwepasi rose hunotsigira democracy.