Dambudziko resimba rakakonzerwa nehondo muUkraine rinogona kukanganisa hupfumi kuRussia neEuropean Union zvekuti rinogona kuzopedzisira radzikira semasimba makuru pasirese.Zvinorehwa nekuchinja uku — zvichiri kunzwisiswa zvisina kujeka — ndezvokuti tiri kuita setiri kufamba nekukurumidza kunyika ine bipolar inotongwa nemasimba makuru maviri: China neUnited States.

Kana tikafunga iyo post-Cold War nguva yeunipolar hutongi hweUS sehunogara kubva 1991 kusvika kudambudziko rezvemari ra2008, saka tinogona kubata nguva kubva 2008 kusvika Kukadzi wegore rino, apo Russia yakapinda muUkraine, senguva yequasi-multipolarity. .China yakanga ichikwira nekukurumidza, asi kukura kwehupfumi hweEU - uye kukura pamberi pa2008 - kwakapa chirevo chiri pamutemo seimwe yemasimba makuru epasirese.Kumuka kwehupfumi hweRussia kubvira 2003 uye kuenderera mberi kwesimba remauto kwakaisa pamepu zvakare.Vatungamiriri kubva kuNew Delhi kuenda kuBerlin kuenda kuMoscow vakarumbidza kuwanda kwehuwandu sechimiro chitsva chezvepasi rose.

Iko kuenderera mberi kwekunetsana kwesimba pakati peRussia neWest kunoreva kuti nguva yemultipolarity yapera.Kunyange hazvo zvombo zveRussia zvezvombo zvenyukireya zvisingaende, nyika inozozviwana yave shamwari yechidiki kune inotungamirwa neChina.Iko kudiki kudiki kwedambudziko resimba pahupfumi hweUS, zvakadaro, ichave inotonhorera kunyaradza Washington geopolitically: Kuoma kweEurope kunozopedzisira kwadzikisira simba reUnited States, iyo yakagara ichiverenga kondinendi seshamwari.

Simba rakachipa ndiro nheyo yehupfumi hwemazuva ano.Kunyangwe chikamu chesimba, munguva dzakajairwa, chichingoita chikamu chidiki chete cheGDP yakazara kune hupfumi hwepamusoro, zvine chekuita nekukwira kwemitengo uye mari yekupinda yezvikamu zvese nekuda kwekuwanda kwayo mukushandisa.

Magetsi eEurope uye mitengo yegasi yepasi ikozvino yava pedyo ne10 nguva yevhareji yavo yezvakaitika kare mumakore gumi anotungamirira kusvika ku 2020. Kukwidzika kukuru kwegore rino kunenge zvachose nekuda kwehondo yeRussia muUkraine, kunyange zvazvo yakawedzerwa nekupisa kwakanyanya uye kusanaya kwemvura muzhizha rino.Kusvika muna 2021, Europe (kusanganisira United Kingdom) yaivimba nekutenga neRussia kweinenge 40 muzana yegasi rayo rechisikigo pamwe nechikamu chikuru chemafuta ayo nemarasha.Mwedzi isati yapinda muUkraine, Russia yakatanga kushandisa misika yemagetsi uye kukwidza mitengo yegasi rechisikigo, sekureva kweInternational Energy Agency.

Simba reEurope rinodhura zvingangoita zvikamu zviviri kubva muzana zveGDP munguva dzakajairika, asi rakwira kusvika pazvikamu gumi nezviviri kubva muzana pamusana pekukwira kwemitengo.Kudhura kwakanyanya kwehukuru uhu kunoreva kuti maindasitiri mazhinji muEurope ari kudzoreredza mashandiro kana kudzima zvachose.Vagadziri vealuminium, vagadziri vefetereza, vanonyungudutsa simbi, uye vanogadzira magirazi ndivo vari panjodzi yemitengo yakakwira gasi.Izvi zvinoreva kuti Europe inogona kutarisira kudzikira kwakanyanya mumakore anotevera, kunyangwe fungidziro dzehupfumi dzekuti kudzika kwakasiyana kwakadii.

Kuti zvive pachena: Europe haizove murombo.Uyewo vanhu varo havazofi nechando ichi.Zviratidzo zvekutanga zvinoratidza kuti kondinendi iri kuita basa rakanaka rekucheka kushandiswa kwegasi rechisikigo uye kuzadza matangi ayo ekuchengetedza munguva yechando.Germany neFrance dzakapa nyika imwe neimwe midziyo mikuru-nemari yakawanda-kuderedza kukanganisa kune vashandisi vemagetsi.

Pane kudaro, njodzi chaiyo iyo kondinendi yakatarisana nayo kurasikirwa nekukwikwidza kwehupfumi nekuda kwekunonoka kwehupfumi.Gasi rakachipa raienderana nekutenda kwenhema mukuvimbika kweRussia, uye izvo zvaenda zvachose.Iyo indasitiri inozogadzirisa zvishoma nezvishoma, asi shanduko iyoyo inotora nguva-uye inogona kukonzera kurwadza kwekusagadzikana kwehupfumi.

Matambudziko ehupfumi aya haana chekuita nekuchinja kwesimba rakachena kana mhinduro yekukurumidzira yeEU mukukanganiswa kwemusika kunokonzerwa nehondo muUkraine.Pane kudaro, ivo vanogona kuteverwa kune zvakapfuura sarudzo dzeEurope kukudziridza kupindwa muropa neRussia fossil fuels, kunyanya gasi rechisikigo.Kunyangwe zvinovandudzwa zvakaita sesolar nemhepo zvinogona kupedzisira zvatsiva mafuta efossil mukupa magetsi akachipa, haakwanise kutsiva gasi rechisikigo kuti rishandiswe mumaindasitiri — kunyanya sezvo imported liquified natural gas (LNG), rinogaro pihwa kune gasi repombi, richidhura zvakanyanya.Kuedza kunoitwa nevamwe vezvematongerwo enyika kupomera shanduko yemagetsi akachena nokuda kwedutu rehupfumi riri kuenderera mberi hakuna kunaka.

Nhau dzakaipa dzeEurope dzinobatanidza maitiro agara aripo: Kubva 2008, chikamu cheEU chehupfumi hwepasi rose chadzikira.Kunyangwe United States yakadzoka kubva kuGreat Recession nekukurumidza, hupfumi hweEurope hwakanetseka zvakanyanya.Vamwe vavo vakatora makore kuti vakure kusvika padanho rekutanga dambudziko.Zvichakadaro, hupfumi muAsia hwanga huchienderera mberi nekukura kwemazinga, zvichitungamirwa nehupfumi hukuru hweChina.

Pakati pa2009 na2020, EU's GDP gore negore kukura kwakaenzana ne0.48 muzana, sekureva kweWorld Bank.Chiyero chekukura kweUS panguva imwe chete chaive chakapetwa katatu, avhareji ye1.38 muzana pagore.Uye China yakakura nekumhanya kwe7.36 muzana pagore panguva imwe cheteyo.Mhedzisiro yacho ndeyekuti, nepo chikamu cheEU cheGDP yepasi rose chaive chakakura kupfuura icho cheUnited States neChina muna 2009, ikozvino ndiyo yakaderera pavatatu.

Munguva pfupi yapfuura sa2005, EU yakaverengera kusvika makumi maviri muzana eGDP yepasi rose.Ichaverengera hafu chete yehuwandu mukutanga 2030s kana hupfumi hweEU hukadzikira ne3 muzana muna 2023 na2024 uyezve hwunotangazve kukura kwayo kwekutanga-denda kwekukura kwe0.5 muzana pagore nepo nyika yese ichikura ne3 muzana ( iyo pre-denda yepasi rose avhareji).Kana chando cha2023 kuchitonhora uye kudzikira kuri kuuya kuchiratidza kuve kwakanyanya, chikamu cheEurope cheGDP chepasi rose chinogona kudonha nekukurumidza.

Zvakatonyanya kuipa, Europe inosarira kumashure zvakanyanya nemamwe masimba maererano nesimba rehondo.Nyika dzeEurope dzakaramba mari yekushandisa muchiuto kwemakumi emakore uye haigoni kugadzirisa nyore kushaikwa kwekudyara uku.Chero kushandiswa kwemauto eEurope iko zvino - kugadzirisa nguva yakarasika - kunouya nemubhadharo wemukana kune mamwe matunhu ehupfumi, zvichigona kugadzira kuwedzera kudhonza mukukura uye kumanikidza sarudzo dzinorwadza pamusoro pekuderedzwa kwemari yemagariro.

Mamiriro ezvinhu eRussia akashata kupfuura EU.Ichokwadi, nyika ichiri kutora mari yakawanda kubva mukutengesa kwayo kunze kweoiri negasi, kunyanya kuAsia.Mukufamba kwenguva, zvakadaro, chikamu cheRussia chemafuta negasi chingangoderera — kunyangwe hondo muUkraine yapera.Humwe hupfumi hweRussia huri kunetsekana, uye zvirango zvekuMadokero zvichabvisa chikamu chesimba renyika hunyanzvi hwehunyanzvi uye mari yekudyara yainoda zvakanyanya.

Iye zvino Europe iyo yakarasikirwa nekutenda muRussia semupi wemagetsi, nzira yeRussia chete inoshanda ndeyekutengesa simba rayo kune vatengi veAsia.Zvinofadza kuti Asia ine hupfumi hwakawanda huri kukura.Zvinosuwisa kuRussia, inenge yese network yemapaipi uye simba remagetsi rakavakirwa kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kuEurope uye haigone kutenderera kumabvazuva.Zvinotora makore nemabhiriyoni emadhora kuti Moscow igadzirise simba rayo rekutengesa kunze kwenyika - uye zvinogona kuona kuti inogona kungotenderera pamari yeBeijing.Kutsamira kwechikamu chesimba kuChina kunogona kuendesa kune yakakura geopolitics, mubatanidzwa uko Russia inozviona ichitamba iri kuwedzera junior basa.Mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin kubvuma kwaGunyana 15 kuti mumwe wake wekuChina, Xi Jinping, aive ne "mibvunzo nezvinonetsa" nezvehondo muUkraine anoratidza musiyano wesimba uripo pakati peBeijing neMoscow.

 

Kushomeka kwezvokudya—uye kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zviripo—kunogona kuunza chinetso chikuru munzvimbo idzi kupfuura simba.Hondo muUkraine yakanganisa kukohwa uye nzira dzekufambisa dzezviyo zvakawanda uye zvimwe zviyo.Vatengesi vakuru vezvekudya seEgypt vane chikonzero chekutyira kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunowanzo perekedza kukwira kwemitengo yechikafu.

Chinonyanya kukosha chezvematongerwo enyika ndechekuti tiri kuenda kunyika umo China neUnited States ndiwo masimba maviri makuru enyika.Kuiswa parutivi kweEurope kubva munyaya dzepasi rose kuchakuvadza zvido zveUS.Europe ndeye - kune chikamu chikuru - demokrasi, capitalist, uye yakazvipira kukodzero dzevanhu uye mitemo-yakavakirwa pasi rose kurongeka.EU yakatungamirawo pasirese mumirau ine chekuita nekuchengetedzeka, kuvanzika kwedata, uye nharaunda, ichimanikidza makambani epasi rose kuti avandudze maitiro avo pasi rese kuti aenderane neEuropean standard.Kuiswa parutivi kweRussia kungaite kunge kwakanakira zvishuwo zveUS, asi kune njodzi yekuti Putin (kana mutsivi wake) achaita mukurasikirwa kwenyika nerukudzo nekubuda munzira dzinoparadza - pamwe nenjodzi.

Sezvo Europe ichinetsekana kudzikamisa hupfumi hwayo, United States inofanirwa kuitsigira pazvinogoneka, kusanganisira nekutengesa kunze mamwe ezviwanikwa zvesimba, seLNG.Izvi zvinogona kunge zviri nyore kutaura pane kuita: vanhu vekuAmerica havasati vamuka zvizere kune yavo yekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi.Mitengo yegasi yemuAmerica yakawedzera zvakapetwa katatu gore rino uye inogona kukwira sezvo makambani eUS anoedza kuwana misika inobhadhara yeLNG kunze kwenyika muEurope neAsia.Kana mitengo yesimba ichiwedzera, vezvematongerwo enyika vekuUS vanouya vachimanikidzwa kurambidza kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchengetedza kugona kwesimba kuNorth America.

Takatarisana neEurope isina kusimba, vagadziri vemitemo veUS vachada kusimudzira denderedzwa rakafara revanodyidzana nehupfumi mune mamwe masangano epasi rose seUnited Nations, World Trade Organisation, uye International Monetary Fund.Izvi zvinogona kureva kufambidzana kukuru kwemasimba epakati seIndia, Brazil, neIndonesia.Zvakadaro, Europe inoita seyakaoma kutsiva.United States yakabatsirwa kwemakumi emakore kubva kune zvakagovana zvido zvehupfumi uye kunzwisisa nekondinendi.Kusvika pakuderera kwehupfumi hweEurope iko zvino, United States ichatarisana nekupokana kwakasimba kuchiono chayo chehurongwa hwepasi rose hunofarira demokrasi.